Tamilnadu Lok Sabha Elections 2019 - an understanding
By all means, this Lok Sabha elections that we have just completed in Tamilnadu is significant as for the first time in over 40 years, the elections have not been dominated by the narrative set by towering state personalities from any side of the political spectrum. this has had the emergence of multiple narratives as part of this elections, many of them emerging from the very crowded people's spaces. it is also the first election where strong ideological narratives are not dominating (i know many of my activist friends would jump at me for this, but, this is true, and i will come to that in awhile) because there is a general perception that ideologies carry no currency any longer with the public.
to begin with i want to summarize some interesting facts here -
1. the state of Tamilnadu has a significant ageing population of above 60 (approx. 15%), however, the average candidate age for the Parliamentary Election is 46! this is promising for the state and perhaps is contributing significantly to the change in the election discourse itself. there are only around 11% candidates contesting who are either 60 or above, which means a whopping 89% of the candidates were born after 1960 or people whose entire political understanding is shaped fully by regional parties as since then we haven't had any national party in the state play any significant role.
2. a fourth of the voter who voted today is first time or second time voters, this places the capacity to influence the swing firmly in the hands of the youth as well in the State. while there doesn't seem to be a voter break-down on age grounds for the previous elections, looking at the enthusiastic way in which many young turned up to vote today, gives me an impression that there is an active participation of younger voters
3. among the candidates contesting 35% were from political parties and there is a massive 65% of independent candidates (more than 500 people) and the majority of the Independent candidates are younger in age than the party fielded candidates. while several of these are 'proxy' candidates to split votes by majority parties, it cannot be as severe as in the assembly elections and i think apart from the eccentrics, there are several genuine cases of idealists among them who are risking money to contest elections that they are sure aware they are not winning. to me this augers well for the future democracy of the state
4. Tamilnadu has always dependent on swing vote and the swing vote has been swayed by popular mood. this mood has in recent years been shaped by controlled and polarized media houses. this is the first election after the widespread availability of the social media in the state. with the third largest user base of internet and mobile telephony in the country (after Delhi and Mumbai) and perhaps the highest rural population usage, the influence of the social media (whose user base has doubled since the last election if I am correct) in an election will be seen in this election in Tamilnadu. While prominent political parties have adopted a strong social media presence, it cannot be denied that they have had tough competition from independent memes, random viral videos, creative smaller parties and powerful individual presentations
5. the women voter population is marginally higher than the male voter population in this election. i don't know if this will have a swing capacity as i suspect among those who couldn't vote women may tend to be more. but, it is important to recognize that this shift is there. naam tamizhar katchi of Seeman made a dramatic statement by fielding 50% women candidates, perhaps for the first time in India a party doing so. while the fate of the candidates is not very bright in most cases, the significant has not been lost on common people.
6. 13% of the contestant have criminal cases against them and half of them have just one case against them; now this is significantly low % considering the normal Indian scene. while common people are often unaware of the criminal antecedents, a strong civil society (Arappor had an app built on a database that profiles each candidate in every constituency with all data they have declared before, ADR and Election Watch had done a thorough analysis of all candidates) movement and a minority, but, still strong media has played a significant role in getting across the candidate information to the voting public, this has had an impact in the selection of candidates to some extent by the prominent parties (though it didn't stop Congress from fielding Karty Chidambaram instead of his father).
7. the young (below 28) and old (above 63) population is marginally higher in the urban areas, whereas the in between age segment is significantly higher in the rural areas. while the old may vote based on set patters and young may not be predictable, the significantly higher voting age population in rural areas means, in a scenario of large rural turn-out for voting, real life issues will come to dominate rather than perceptions or party loyalties, jobs, livelihoods and life security issues have to be significantly addressed for this segment to be swayed. BJP has made a bad calculation on this front into thinking that farming is just an emotional issue with the tamils and is not real, it will backfire on them. similarly, their simplistic balm on 'investing money through new industries' on impact of demonetization in the state too doesn't buy them any votes and i anticipate coimbatore and tirupur to communicate this to them in the toughest possible terms through the ballot.
8. despite the 'largest' booking of 'un-accounted' money in the state, very little (except of course a few big ones, all of the opposition party) has stuck; one needs to understand that large 'un-accounted' money is simple plain black money, and, in one way or other, these are all related to big projects and industries. one way or other, they will be connected to the status quo and government, either in the state or centre. i am sure it will disappear with no trace after the election results are announced. their cases will be closed. there is also the cash economy that has been revived since the de-monetization which the centre govt. pretends doesn't exist. black money is a norm in managing any business and in a state with a rather strong and vibrant business activity, movement of black money is a norm rather than an exception. this is a deeper rot that needs to be systemically addressed and does not reflect the 'cash-for-vote' issue at all.
8.1. cash-for-vote does exist, among the poorer population, it is not seen as a moral or an ethical issue at all. it is more complicated and nuanced in each region and can never assure of votes. it is only the simplistic and moralistic middle class that tries to reduce it into an issue that it can handle because it doesn't derive any benefit from the same.
o.k. the multiplicity of narratives that i mentioned earlier -
-- idealism is in, ideology is out: all parties have had to face the contradictions to their past during the campaign, BJP had to search and build a common history of engagement with the Dravidian politics, DMK had to make itself more appealing to Hindu voters, Seeman's rhetoric party had to tone down and field candidates who spoke a moderate line, Kamal Hassan, despite being a new party had to face several tricky questions on his apparent inconsistency as he struggles to articulate the different in his mind between what he thinks is pragmatic approach to what he has grown up thinking is political ideology.
-- environmental justice is a priority (except BJP almost everyone had to bow to this in the state, PMK does lead as usual though their choice of alliance doesn't give them more than verbal option to state much, but, MNM not far behind, DMK and others not lacking either), manifesto of many parties have indicated these, the Congress manifesto has been debated in the local language more in tamilnadu and won the hearts of many activists and groups because of its perceived pro-green tilt; denying climate change or pursuing natural resource destroying policies are not going to make any party popular in the state
-- decentralization at the village level and strengthening of Panchayats is as important as the state autonomy for the structure of the democracy to function (DMK surprisingly took this issue from the NGOs who were promoting this and so did MNM in the built-up to the election, though it lost them their urban base which could have been significantly stronger if not for their sudden strategy shift towards the rural population, urban Tamilnadu does not understand Panchayat or their relevance)
-- corruption is an issue, but, no one believes it can be rooted out in the current governance system without significant changes to it - corruption is a fetish and pre-occupation of the moralist middle class, which sometimes uses the rhetoric ranging from local reasoning to emotional appeal to justify its rightful anger against it; corruption is not seen by the poor or the rich as an issue that is independent of the structural and functional inequalities embedded in the systems of governance. so, corruption is seen as a necessary evil to 'get things moving' while getting caught being corrupt is seen as a compliance issue with the legal and regulatory mechanisms. there is a moral 'limit' to which corruption is tolerated, and, this is locally derived by the community and can vary from region to region in the state. a re-framing of corruption as a social evil is long overdue considering these factors in the state, but, that takes much courage and imagination for any political party.
-- tamil language alone doesn't define the identity of the people, nor is it the sole unification factor - there could be several other factors including organic farming, jallikattu, native food, water conservation, farmer's rights, LGBT rights...there is an embracing of several issues that has been brought into the mainstream by civil society in the recent years into the 'tamil' identity which is interesting
-- talking religion is not taboo - atheism was a rhetoric in a time period for highlighting caste inequality issues, it was never a strongly adhered philosophy except by academics who gloated over it and a few fringe elements. it lost its sheen even during MGR and the last proponent died with Karunanidhi, the pretense of atheism is finally given up as a feature of tamil politics this is good as it removes the hurdle of the local politician to participate in his clan / community / village temple festival finally. this could be only contribution the ascend of BJP at the national level gave to tamilnadu
-- south indian confederation is real and it could be both anti-BJP and anti-Congress - the dis-proportionate economic power of the southern states vis-a-vis their political influence in the national governance is part of the regional discourse and both Congress and BJP are not recognized by anyone in the southern states as a 'nationa' party any longer, if anything they are seen as north and central indian parties that have aspirations in the south, just like communists and left groups are seen as also regional parties pursuing their own vision of a diluted ideology
-- top class research, analysis and planning happens IN TAMIL and let others learn the language - the pride of the language of a previous generation has rubbed off in the next level of economic activity, professionalism. the new confident professional of tamilnadu speaks in tamil and not just inside his state but even in the global platforms and expects everyone to learn the language to engage with them.
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